Is your confidence earned?

Not what you know. How sure you are.

Most of us believe we know more, and see more clearly, than we really do. Research has shown this for decades, in students and seasoned professionals alike. The gap has little to do with how smart we are. It comes from how sure we feel.

For leaders, that gap is costly. It shows up as forecasts that are too tight, risks no one saw coming, and decisions made before the right questions were asked.

The answer is not self-doubt. It is a habit: pause before assuming you are right, ask what you might be missing, and leave room to be wrong. This short test lets you see the gap for yourself.

How it works

For each question, give a low number and a high number. Pick them so you are 90% sure the real answer falls between them. Not 100%. Not 50%. Ninety.

If you set your ranges well, you will catch about 9 out of 10 answers. Don't look anything up. Very wide ranges like "zero to a billion" defeat the purpose.

You can type big numbers as 2,000,000 or 2 million or 2m.

Your first try is saved anonymously so we can learn which questions trip people up. We never ask for your name or email.